The only polls that really matter are what happens on November 3rd. However, as in 2016, many major media polls show the Democrat Party’s candidate leading Donald Trump. As in 2016, though, they may be wrong. Here are some pollsters who are showing Trump performing better than many in the media are saying.
The Trafalgar Group—the only polling group that accurately predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania—as of today, has President Trump winning in key swing states that are critical to ensuring a second term for the President.
Although most are within the margin of error, if Trafalgar is correct and the trend continues through November 3rd, President Trump may very well be on his way to winning his second term.
In Florida, Trafalgar has President Trump leading Joe Biden 48.7% to 45.6%.
In Missouri, President Trump’s lead is much more comfortable with 51.9% backing the President to 41.2% backing Biden.
Meanwhile, in Michigan—a key swing state—Trafalgar has the President ahead of Biden 46.6% to 45.2%.
Of note, Trafalgar is one of the few pollsters (the only?) that is reporting the “bounce” (or lack thereof) following the Democratic National Convention.
In Wisconsin, Trump is ahead of Biden less than a percentage point (46.2% to 45.4%, respectively).
In Louisiana, it is not even close. Trump leads Biden by a 16.4 percentage points.
In Arizona, labeled a swing state in the 2020 election, although the poll was reported August 10th, Trafalgar had Trump leading Biden 46.2 to 44.8, respectively.
However, a more recent Fox News poll has Biden leading Trump 49-40 in the Grand Canyon State.
Pennsylvania is too close to call, with some polls (like Rasumussen) suggesting the race is a tie (46% to 46%), while others have Biden leading.
In Minnesota, a traditional stronghold for Democrats, while most polls indicate that Biden is still leading the state, Trafalgar has Biden leading by a slimmer margin than most.
The Trump campaign believes the President has a chance of swinging the state to red this year.
One notable factor that is beginning to worry Democrats is that a new study suggests polls are missing shy trump voters.
Again, the only real polls that count is the one that takes place nationwide on November 3rd.